Russia's war against Ukraine is costing more and achieving less: UK statement to the FSC
Politico-Military Counsellor Arron Newble says Russia is spending a growing share of its budget on the war for limited gains, and asks how this fits its Code of Conduct commitments.
Thank you, Mr Chair. The United Kingdom remains unwavering in its support for Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders, and for a just and lasting peace. We also fully support Allies’ efforts to challenge destabilising activity on NATO territory: the latest example being Romania’s exposure this week of a Russian sabotage network responsible for an arson attack in Brasov on 14 September.
Last week, Russia devoted much of its statement to the cost of supporting Ukraine. It claimed that the money of Western taxpayers does not go to Ukraine’s defence. It then closed by declaring that the achievement of Russia’s objectives is “inevitable”. Mr Chair, if Russia wishes to discuss the cost of this war, we welcome that discussion. But it should begin with the State that started it.
First, the distinction matters. Ukraine is exercising its inherent right of self-defence, which the Code of Conduct reaffirms. Its partners are supporting that defence; despite Russia’s efforts to deter them from doing so. Russia, by contrast, is financing a war of aggression against a fellow participating State. That directly contradicts its commitment that no participating State will attempt to impose military domination over another. The two cannot be equated.
Second, Russia’s own figures tell a revealing story. Last month, Russia’s Ministry of Finance doubled its forecast for this year’s budget deficit, to 3.2% of GDP. The liquid assets of its National Wealth Fund have fallen to around 1.6% of GDP, from 7% before the full-scale invasion. To close the gap, the Russian government is borrowing more, raising taxes and cutting civilian spending, while defence and security take a growing share of the federal budget. Over the past year Russia has reportedly been spending more on compensation to the families of fallen soldiers than it has on salaries for living ones: a grim and costly milestone that will only worsen as casualties mount. Russia has expressed concern for European taxpayers. It might also explain to this Forum what Russian taxpayers are being asked to give up to sustain their war of aggression.
Third, what has this expenditure bought? Open-source analysis indicates that Russia’s rate of advance this year has averaged under 200 square kilometres a month, around half of last year’s pace. Its casualties, meanwhile, remain at record levels. Despite many claims that have turned out to be false, Russia has yet to take a single strategically significant settlement this year; and Ukraine continues to reclaim territory through its counter-attacks.
Mr Chair, the Kremlin’s decision to pay for continued fighting despite the impact it is having on its economy, is not evidence that its objectives are achievable. On the contrary, it is set to face record losses this year at a record cost while its battlefield advances are expected to be even more limited than either 2024 or 2025.
This is a matter for this Forum. Under the Code of Conduct, participating States have committed to: “maintain only such military capabilities as are commensurate with legitimate security need” and “exercise restraint in military expenditure”.
We therefore ask the Russian delegation: a growing share of Russia’s national budget is now devoted to the war against Ukraine. How does Russia reconcile this with its commitments under the Code of Conduct to exercise restraint in military expenditure and not to impose military domination over another participating State?
Russia could end these costs today, for Ukraine, for Europe and for its own citizens. It should agree to a full, immediate and unconditional ceasefire, withdraw its forces from Ukraine’s internationally recognised territory, and engage seriously in negotiations towards a just and lasting peace. Thank you, Mr Chair.