By Dr Elaine Wedlock, Head of Strategic Analysis, Office of the UK Independent Anti-Slavery Commissioner
Modern slavery is often described as a hidden crime, but one of its greatest challenges is that it is also constantly evolving. The Independent Anti-Slavery Commissioner has a statutory role to encourage good practice in the prevention, detection, investigation and prosecution of modern slavery offences, and in the identification of and support for victims. To fulfil that role effectively, it is essential not only to understand current threats, but also to consider how exploitation may develop in the years ahead.
Through the Government Office for Science's Futures Procurement Framework Co-Funding Initiative, the Independent Anti-Slavery Commissioner’s Office commissioned Decision Analysis Services to undertake a strategic futures analysis examining how modern slavery and human trafficking could change over the next ten years. Exploitation adapts quickly to new conditions. Criminals respond to technological advances, economic pressures, migration patterns and global instability, while policy and operational responses are, understandably, often focused on the challenges of today. The Commissioner recognised the need to create space for longer-term thinking about the risks and trends likely to shape modern slavery and human trafficking without being constrained by policy or operational assumptions.
The result was Anticipating Exploitation: A Futures Analysis. Rather than attempting to predict what will happen, the report is intended to help policymakers, practitioners and partners prepare for a range of plausible futures, strengthening the UK's ability to prevent and respond to evolving forms of exploitation.
The project brought together more than 50 organisations from across government, law enforcement, academia, civil society and survivor-led groups. We also worked closely with people with lived experience of modern slavery and human trafficking, ensuring that futures thinking was grounded in the realities of exploitation today.
Using methods set out in the Government Office for Science Futures Toolkit, the project combined horizon scanning, expert engagement, scenario development and backcasting. Participants identified key drivers that could shape future exploitation and explored how these might interact over the next ten years. The scenarios developed were not forecasts. Instead, they provided a structured way to explore uncertainty, challenge assumptions and test the resilience of current approaches.
One of the most striking findings was not the emergence of entirely new threats, but how many future risks represented an evolution of issues we already see today. Participants repeatedly highlighted the growing role of technology. Artificial intelligence, digital platforms, encrypted communications and cryptocurrencies are creating new opportunities for offenders to recruit, control and profit from victims at greater scale and with greater anonymity. Rather than replacing existing forms of exploitation, technology appears likely to accelerate and amplify them.
We were also struck by the consistency of the messages coming from people with lived experience. During workshops, survivors often identified vulnerabilities and warning signs long before institutions recognised them. In some discussions, participants reflected that issues now being described as emerging risks had been raised by survivors years earlier. This reinforced the importance of embedding lived experience not only in service design and policy development, but also in strategic foresight work.
Another insight was the extent to which modern slavery is connected to wider social, economic and geopolitical trends. Participants highlighted the influence of conflict, climate change, migration pressures, labour market changes and economic instability. The exercise demonstrated that the future of exploitation cannot be understood in isolation from these wider forces, making collaboration across sectors increasingly important.
The project ultimately identified a range of emerging threats, including online-enabled sexual exploitation, gig economy exploitation, visa-related exploitation and the exploitation of vulnerable adults. It also highlighted concerns around the capacity of safeguarding and enforcement systems to keep pace with increasingly adaptive forms of criminality. These findings helped inform a practical action plan focused on prevention, survivor involvement, stronger safeguarding and more effective disruption of offenders.
Looking back, there are several lessons that may be useful for other organisations considering futures projects.
First, diversity of perspectives matters. Some of the richest discussions occurred when policymakers, practitioners, academics and people with lived experience were examining the same scenario from different viewpoints. Bringing those perspectives together helped uncover assumptions and identify blind spots that might otherwise have been missed.
Second, futures work is most valuable when it embraces uncertainty rather than trying to eliminate it. There was a natural temptation to ask which scenario was most likely. However, the real value came from exploring a range of plausible futures and considering what actions would remain beneficial across all of them.
Third, linking foresight to action is critical. The backcasting element of the project helped participants move beyond identifying risks and towards identifying practical interventions. Working backwards from a preferred future created a clear connection between long-term thinking and decisions that can be taken today.
One of the lasting benefits of the project has been demonstrating how futures methods can support responses to complex social harms. Modern slavery and human trafficking are constantly evolving, and organisations need tools that help them navigate uncertainty, not just react to events as they occur. Futures approaches provide a structured way to do this.
Through this work, our priorities and thinking have evolved. We have also been struck by the level of interest it has generated, from small frontline practitioners to our international partners, stimulating discussion and dialogue about the future of modern slavery and the actions needed to prepare for it.
The key message for us is simple. Modern slavery is unlikely to stand still over the coming decade, and neither can our response. Futures work cannot tell us exactly what 2036 will look like. What it can do is help us ask better questions, recognise emerging risks earlier and take action before those risks become entrenched. That has been the greatest value of this project and a reminder that preventing exploitation requires us to anticipate tomorrow's challenges, not just respond to today's.
Report: Anticipating Exploitation: A Futures Based Analysis
The IASC presented this work to the Government Futures Network, a community of futures practitioners and policy makers. If you’re in government and interested in joining the network contact the GO-Science Futures team at futures@go-science.gov.uk.
There are also more case studies about using futures on our website and if you’d like to find out more about commissioning your own futures project take a look here: Futures Procurement Framework.
Leave a comment